Oscar Predictions and Failures 2019, or Why I Don't Bet

Before the Oscar winners were announced I made my predictions based on some knowledge and a lot of guesswork. I picked twenty categories; I was right/ wrong in exactly half. Here are the results:

Best Documentary
My choice: Free Solo / Their choice: Free Solo 
I confess I haven't seen any of the documentaries nominated at the Oscars - they have such a short cinema release and are quite difficult to track down - but of all the trailers, this is the one that looks really gripping - that's sort of a pun because the climber must grip the lump of rock he's climbing in order not to fall off... never mind.

Best Foreign Language Film
My Choice: Roma / Their Choice: Roma 
It sort of had to be, really. It has won this category (or BAFTA equivalent 'Best Film not in the English Language') in all of the other award ceremonies this year. For some reason it has had a whole heap of publicity despite being released on Netflix and only released at the cinema for about a day and a half. I haven't got Netflix; I had to watch it at a friend's house. He had good wine, which helped. I'm not sure I could have sat through it without that.

Best Animated Feature
My Choice: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse / Their Choice: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
I haven't seen it. I don't like cartoons and I don't like super-hero films, but I know America does. The only animated feature nominee I've seen is Isle of Dogs, because I think director Wes Anderson is a genius. It was very good but too clever and too original to win an Oscar. People might even have to use their imaginations while watching it, and we know how well that goes down with Uncle Sam fans.

Achievement in Sound Mixing
My Choice: First Man / Their Choice: Bohemian Rhapsody
It seems I may not know much about these categories. I thought the mix of sound and silence in First Man was outstandingly atmospheric. Apparently the brief was  'to create sequences to be experimental and immersive.' I felt this. In that claustrophobic moon landing sequence (sorry if that's a spoiler for anyone), I was hypersensitive to every sound - the droning hum of air pressure; the metal clicks of belts; the muffled voices and radio static; the creaks and groans of the space capsule; the breathing of the astronauts - I was as close as I could be while being 50 years and 250,000 miles away. Bohemian Rhapsody won because it's about a band that were bloody good at music.

Achievement in Sound Editing
My Choice: A Quiet Place / Their Choice: Bohemian Rhapsody
Ditto above. A Quiet Place is a mastercalss of when to use sound and when to stay silent - the clue is in the title. The opening sequence that reveals the bags of crisps as the only food item left behind in the store sets the sonic tone of the film. Noise can kill you - it is used brilliantly and judiciously throughout as an audacious narrative element. Once dialogue is removed from a film, the power, richness and nuance of sound becomes crucial. Bohemian Rhapsody won because it's about a band that were bloody good at music.

Achievement in Visual Effects
My Choice: First Man / Their Choice: First Man
Ok, so I've not seen the other nominees in this category (Amblin/ Disney/ LucasFilm/ Marvel - it's all just going to be big and brash), but even without having sat through identikit fighting and schmaltz, I believe this is a worthy winner. The visuals are actually effecting and enhance the experience rather than simply padding it out with yet another battle scene or a travesty of my childhood friends. The team (J.D. Schwalm, Tristam Myles, Ian Hunter) used a unique combination of miniatures, archival footage, traditional digital effects, and massive LED screens to re-create the Apollo 11 mission and the events leading up to it. It is a highly impressive achievement.

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
My Choice: Vice / Their Choice: Vice

I suspected correctly that this might be the only category which Vice would win. I enjoyed the film and thought the attention to satirical and heightened detail was exceptional in all things, not least the hair and make-up. Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney did a great job of making Christian Bale look unrecognisable, and apparently that is a good thing because from American Hustle to Batman to The Machinist he's often found hiding behind a dodgy barnet, mask, or unfeasible body image. 

Achievement in Costume Design

My Choice: Mary Queen of Scots / Their Choice: Black Panther

If the judges had been British, Alexandra Byrne would have been taking home the gong for Mary Queen of Scots because we all love a good period costume (and I don't mean the red Handmaid's Tale garments). However, Black Panther was nominated in six categories, so it was bound to win a few. Ruth Carter's win for this eclectic collection of 'ethnic couture' made her the first woman of colour to win a costume design Oscar, and it was also the first ever Oscar winner for a Marvel movie, so that should keep the comic fans happy. In her acceptance speech, Carter announced, 'It's been my life's honour to create costumes. Thank you to the Academy,thank you for honouring African royalty and the empowered way women can look and lead on screen.' Fair enough. It may all have looked a bit Lion King but at least the costumes brightened up what was otherwise a rather dull film. 

Achievement in Production Design

My Choice: Black Panther / Their Choice: Black Panther

For all of the reasons above and then some. Hannah Beachler had already made history by being the fist African American to be nominated in this category; she smashed that by also winning it. In her acceptance speech she quoted 'this piece of advice I got from a very wise woman: I did my best and my best is good enough.' Yes it is. 

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

My Choice: Shallow - A Star is Born / Their Choice: Shallow - A Star is Born

This may have been the most obvious choice of the entire shebang, even if I have never seen the film, and have no intention of doing so. The star-quality-combination of Lady Gaga and Mark Ronson is simply too much for audiences to overlook. If she did the Superbowl; she's going to win an Oscar. The song is exactly the sort of formulaic eighties power ballad with added country croak that they love in the good ol' U.S. of A. Expect it to be sung at every karaoke bar you have the misfortune to be caught in for the next twenty years.

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

My Choice: Mary Poppins Returns / Their Choice: Black Panther

This one was tough to call. I do like the African drums, rhythms, call and response chants and use of 'world music' instruments on the soundtrack of Black Panther. I have learned what a tambin is (it's a 'diagonal diatonic flute without a bell, made from a conical vine, with three finger-holes and a rectangular embouchere with two wings on either side' if that helps) and heard many other instruments that are rarely played any more. I liked the songs in MPR and I loved the lazy, emollient and seductive jazz tones of If Beale Street Could Talk, but this reminds me of the way I was introduced to new and exciting sounds by Andy Kershaw on Radio 1 back in the mid-eighties, so I'm happy with that.

Achievement in Cinematography

My Choice: Roma / Their Choice: Roma

I'll admit the cinematography was the best thing in this film with carefully staged tableaux intended to recall works of art. Personally I much preferred the brave and dynamic choices in The Favourite with its use of panning shots, challenging angles and fish-eye lens, but everyone knows that black and white is arty, right? 

Achievement in Film Editing

My Choice: Vice / Their Choice: Bohemian Rhapsody

Much of the criticism I have seen levelled at Vice is due to the stylistic decisions made by the director to inter-cut the narrative with explanatory devices which highlight the ambiguity of power and the pursuit thereof. Editor Hank Corwin treats the tale like a Shakespearean history with provocative vignettes and surreal farce. Of course it isn't true - if you want to know the truth read a book or watch a documentary - but it is entertaining. The fourth-wall breaking, non-linear structure, fading to black absence of images while sound still resonates, and introduction of a false ending, give the film a unique dramatic flow. It is solidly edited (and quite brutally - an entire song and dance number set in a congress cafe and overseen by the choreographer from Hamilton no less was left on the cutting room floor). I suppose Bohemian Rhapsody messed with the time-line too, but in a narrative rather than an editing manner. From what I can tell, the editing seems to consist of 'how many cuts can we get into a scene?' and 'If in doubt, cut to Freddie!' The editor (and composer - let's just say he's better at that) said in an interview, "Filmmaking is not just filmmaking. It's all the politics and just praying to God that some things will survive a shotgun blast." Ah, the power of prayer...

Original Screenplay

My Choice: The Favourite / Their Choice: Green Book

I wanted The Favourite to win. It is the best screenplay on this list, full of humour and wit and superb quotable dialogue. I knew American audiences would balk at the colourful language - extreme mysogynistic violence is acceptable, but be shocked by the word c*^t and claim it is anachronistic, despite it being oft used by Chaucer before prudish society made any reference to a woman's parts a heinous profanity. (Tony McNamara's The Great is further evidence of his brilliant writing - it has just been picked up by an American streaming service, so we'll see how they butcher that.) I also thought First Reformed was an excellent choice; it is sparsely and emotionally written as you would expect from the writer of Taxi Driver and Raging Bull. Also Vice and Roma were in this category. In fact, of all the nominations, Green Book was clearly the worst. It is a very obvious (borderline offensive) narrative with dialogue-by-numbers and ludicrously-drawn characters. We're talking about a film written by the man (Peter Farrelly) who brought you Shallow Hal, Stuck on You, and Dumb and Dumber. And it shows.

Adapted Screenplay

My Choice: A Star is Born / Their Choice: BlacKkKlansman

I thought that A Star is Born would probably win as it's a none-too-challenging piece that fools with superficial depth. However, If Beale Street Could Talk and BlacKkKlansman are both outstanding. I felt that If Beale Street Could Talk was beautiful, gentle and generous. Obviously there are significant horrors and atrocities in the lives of these people but (apart from the ex-convict who agreed with Malcolm X that 'white people are the devil') they choose not to dwell on them and instead highlight the positive aspects of humanity, love and relationships. All of the main characters have patience, dignity and great strength - it's so much in keeping with James Baldwin's writing aesthetic it made me weep. I haven't read the source material from which Spike Lee adapted BlacKkKlansman (Ron Stallworth's memoir, Black Klansman: Race, Hate, and the Undercover Investigation of a Lifetime) but I thought the film was well paced and well written, and I'm glad to see Spike Lee finally getting his Oscar.

Actor in a Supporting Role
My Choice: Mahershala Ali - Green Book / Their Choice: Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Again, this was an obvious choice, and it has been the same for every major awards event this season. For all my misgivings about the film (and I have many), the acting is very good. Indeed, if Mahershala Ali can bring this much heft to a thinly-written stereotype, he clearly has talent.

Actress in a Supporting Role
My Choice: Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk / Their Choice: Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk 
Why do they present the best supporting female actor so far away from the other acting awards? Is it because they don't value it in the same way? Or is it to whet the appetite for what is to come? Either way it is peculiar. I would have liked to see Rachel Weiss win for The Favourite, but she wasn't going to, because that would have been unfair to Emma Stone and she is America's sweetheart. I would have liked to see Emily Blunt win for A Quiet Place, but she wasn't nominated. Having said that, Regina King puts in a powerful performance in If Beale Street Could Talk, and it seems that this year the Academy are desperate to prove they are #oscarsnotwhite. This is a highly contested category and it went to a worthy winner.

Actor in a Leading Role
My Choice: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody / Their Choice: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
No surprises here - Rami Malek and his prosthetics were bound to clean up. The expression, 'Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery...' is well-known. Less so, is the rest of that other Oscar's quote, '...that mediocrity can pay to greatness.' Christian Bale and his prosthetics probably deserved it more, but we're all busy trying to pretend we're not partisan. Anyway, Malek seems like a nice chap, and he is a self-identified first-generation American immigrant growing up in an Egyptian family, so if you're playing Academy Bingo, you've got yourself a full house! 

Actress in a Leading Role
My Choice: Glenn Close - The Wife / Their Choice: Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Big surprise. Big, beautiful, brilliant surprise. She's my favourite too (and the film was my favourite of 2018) but she's British and the others are not. I feel a little sorry for Glenn Close who holds the record for the female actor with the most nominations without winning and is the living actor with the most nominations without a win. She is remarkable in The Wife and in any other year I would have expected her to win. In fact, even this year I expected her to win, because the part of Queen Anne is so challenging and bonkers and bizarre that I am amazed the Academy went with it. I'm sorry Glenn, but I've rarely been happier to have been proved wrong. Blowing a raspberry to the time-to-wrap-it-up folk during her speech and holding the golden statuette aloft, Olivia Colman hoped her children were watching because 'this is not going to happen again'. Now, I'm not one for predictions (evidently) but I suspect it is. She's been a national treasure for some time now in Britain; she is now an international one - get ready for Colliemania.

Directing
My Choice: Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansan / Their Choice: Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Roma is long and slow and arty. It's black and white and has has intense scenes without dialogue so it's arty. It has beautiful tableaux situations and surreal scenes so it's arty. Did I mention it was arty? I've been trying to rationalise my dislike for Roma  ever since I saw it, and it finally came to me at the weekend as I was doing the hoovering. We have known for ever that a woman's lot can be full of mind-numbing domestic chores and thankless child-rearing while pandering to a male ego, supporting their career and soothing their inner angst. Apparently we only notice this when it is brought to our attention by an arty piece of pretentious film-making written and directed by a man. The life of a woman can be shit? Please mansplain that to me some more.

Best Picture:
My Choice - A Star is Born / Their Choice - Green Book
Even though there was clearly a best picture in here - The Favourite in case you're in any doubt - I knew it wouldn't win the top honours and so thought A Star is Born would cash in on its musical popularity, and I wouldn't have been surprised if any of the others (except Vice, which is also too good to win) got the nod. However, when Green Book was announced as the winner of best picture, I seriously thought this was another envelope malfunction. Really? Best Picture? What were they looking at? Remember all that stuff I wrote about inclusion and diversity? Scrap that. This is a total throwback to 1980s buddy movies with no stereotype left unturned. 

Yes, the acting is good, and the production values are slick to the point of banality, but the entire product is reactionary. It would be utterly disposable if it weren't so derogatory. In 1988 the KLF wrote a manual about how to achieve a number one record. (The actual product was Doctorin' the Tardis, which hit the top spot proving they knew exactly what they were doing.) They called this manual 'The Manual', told their audience that it was going to expose how they were being insulted, and acknowledged that it was destined to become an 'obsolete artefact' within twelve months. They wrote,

'In parts of this manual we will patronise you. In others we will cheat you. We will lie to you but we will lie to ourselves as well. You will, however, see through our lies and grasp the shining truth within. We will trap ourselves in our own pretensions. Our insights will be shot through with distort rays and we will revel in our own inconsistencies. If parts get too boring just fast forward - all the way to the end if need be.'

I get the feeling the makers of Green Book took this to heart. If you were to apply this advice and fast forward to the end of the film, you would be 'treated' to a scene worthy of a mid-80s rom-com: Moonstruck, say. This is a retrogressive decision that indicates nothing has been learned from those who speak up about inclusion and diversity no matter what the bigwigs say. At least it was presented by the devastatingly beautiful Julia Roberts. If you care about these things, it's sad. If not, as you were.